Drought

On Episode 5 of the TID Water & Power Podcast we sit down with TID’s Olivia Cramer and Brad Koehn to discuss the drought.

Locally, and across much of the state of California, we are in the midst of a drought. TID is experiencing the fourth driest two-year period on record – dating back to 1897 – and TID irrigation customers have received a reduction in surface water for the second consecutive year. But TID has taken what we learned from past droughts and has made steady preparations in the years to help customers and the District better weather this drought as well.

We discuss the impacts of the current drought, how TID has prepared for this drought, and what the future outlook might be.

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Find out more about TID at https://www.TID.org/podcast. 

Let’s get social!
Facebook: @TurlockID
Instagram: @TurlockID
Twitter: @TurlockID
LinkedIn: /company/turlockid

Find out more about TID at https://www.TID.org/podcast.

Transcript

00;00;00;10 - 00;00;21;10
Speaker 1
Before we get into the episode, we wanted to share a quick update on the curtailment orders issued by the State Water Resources Control Board on August 20th, 2021. The State Water Board issued curtailment orders on approximately 4500 water rights holders in the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta, including Turlock Irrigation District.

00;00;22;00 - 00;00;45;18
Speaker 1
These orders call for immediately ceasing diversions from the river for both pre and post 1914 water right holders. Although these orders are unlikely to impact today's irrigation water deliveries this year, the curtailments could have significant impact on water available in 2022 and beyond, depending on when the curtailments are lifted.

00;00;46;24 - 00;01;09;26
Speaker 1
The stated goals of the curtailment orders are to protect drinking water supplies, to prevent salinity intrusion into the delta, and minimize impacts to fisheries and the environment. TID believes curtailments on the quality river are not needed to meet the stated goals of the curtailment order, as we are already managing the system to ensure water supply and the

00;01;09;26 - 00;01;25;20
Speaker 1
protection of the fishery. In response to the curtailments, TID is filing a petition for reconsideration of the order, which is the first step to challenging the order. The district has also not ruled out the possibility of seeking injunctive relief.

00;01;26;16 - 00;01;45;19
Speaker 1
Finally, TID, as a member of the San Joaquin Tributaries Authority, will submit a legal challenge to the regulation. For more information on the curtailments and updates on TID progress, please visit our Drought Resources web page at TID.org/drought.

00;01;53;24 - 00;02;08;25
Speaker 1
Hello and welcome to the TID Water and Power Podcast. I'm your host, Constance Anderson. And on this month's episode, we're discussing the drought. While that might seem like a bummer of a topic, it's important to understand today's approach to drought planning.

00;02;09;06 - 00;02;25;06
Speaker 1
Knowing that in the Central Valley, we will continue to see these types of conditions locally and across much of the state. We are in the midst of a drought. Tide is experiencing the fourth driest two year period on record dating back to 1897.

00;02;25;21 - 00;02;47;26
Speaker 1
And today, irrigation customers have received a reduction in surface water for the second consecutive year. The last time we experienced conditions this dry was less than a decade ago during the 2012/2016 drought. But it has taken what we've learned from the past and has made steady preparations in the years since to help customers and the district

00;02;47;29 - 00;03;06;03
Speaker 1
better weather this drought. On this episode, I sit down with Olivia Cramer, a hydrologist at TID, and Brad Cohen, chief operating officer, to talk about the impacts of the current drought, how TID has prepared for this drought, and what the future outlook might be.

00;03;07;09 - 00;03;17;23
Speaker 1
Now let's get into the interviews. First up, I'd like to introduce Olivia Cramer, a hydrologist at Turlock Irrigation District. Thanks for joining us, Olivia.

00;03;18;13 - 00;03;19;18
Speaker 2
Well, thank you for having me.

00;03;20;00 - 00;03;30;01
Speaker 1
Why don't we start out, if you would, by telling us a little bit about your current role with the district and then your role of the hydrology department in drought operations?

00;03;30;24 - 00;03;47;05
Speaker 2
Yeah, absolutely. Well, as far as kind of my history at the District, I actually had started off as an intern back in 2016, an intern for the district for about two consecutive summers where I kind of got a glimpse behind the curtain, if you will.

00;03;47;05 - 00;04;08;23
Speaker 2
And I was hooked right away. And then finally in 2018, I was hired on full time where I actually got to pull back the curtain all the way. So my current role looks at both the short term and long term planning analysis for Don Pedro, and this is for both flood control and water supply purposes.

00;04;09;09 - 00;04;27;11
Speaker 2
And when it comes to the hydrology department's role in drought operations, we are focusing in on that water supply part of our planning. And this is looking at what is the overall water balance, where are we seeing gains in the system and especially where are we seeing losses?

00;04;27;21 - 00;04;52;14
Speaker 2
And so this has us required to look at soil moisture, wind, solar radiation, even within the watershed and looking at how that impacts the snowpack and how precipitation is going to come down within the watershed. And then from there, once we get an idea of what's happening in the watershed and what forecasted conditions are going to be

00;04;52;14 - 00;05;11;05
Speaker 2
in the watershed, we're able to layer on our operations. And from there, we're able to get what is the inflow going to be into Don Pedro and what are environmental flows going to be for Don Pedro? And from there, then we can be able to move that information to our policymakers or our board of directors for them

00;05;11;05 - 00;05;14;19
Speaker 2
to be able to make an informed decision as far as the irrigation season.

00;05;15;27 - 00;05;23;01
Speaker 1
Right. So there's a lot more that goes into hydrology than just what rain is falling or what snow is in the mountains.

00;05;23;12 - 00;05;24;04
Speaker 2
Absolutely.

00;05;24;27 - 00;05;34;10
Speaker 1
Very good. And so in part of your updates to the board and helping them with their decision making, you provide a weekly report to the board of directors, is that right?

00;05;34;19 - 00;05;55;29
Speaker 2
Yes. So every week I present to the board of directors what the current conditions are within the watershed, as well as some information about local conditions as well. But most of our focus is on the Tuolumne watershed and that information is actually posted online for people to be able to look at later if they're not able

00;05;55;29 - 00;05;57;26
Speaker 2
to attend our board meetings in person.

00;05;58;17 - 00;06;12;00
Speaker 1
Excellent. That's a great resource. And then in addition to the board of directors making decisions about the irrigation season, there are also considerations that he has to make with regard to environmental releases.

00;06;12;18 - 00;06;31;12
Speaker 2
Yes. So as part of our Don Pedro license, we have to meet certain environmental flows below Don Pedro. And so in order to meet those, we have to forecast what the volumes are going to be coming in as well as look at some past hydrology.

00;06;31;12 - 00;06;49;03
Speaker 2
And based on that, we get an overall volume requirement. And once we have that volume, we actually work with our fish biologists who talks with multiple environmental agencies to decide how should we shape that water for the greatest environmental benefit, essentially?

00;06;49;29 - 00;07;02;13
Speaker 1
Excellent. Okay. So before we get into talking about the current drought, let's talk a little bit about what drought is. How do you, as one of TID's hydrologist, define drought?

00;07;03;15 - 00;07;16;11
Speaker 2
Yes. So I think a lot of people, when they think of drought, they look at actually more of a meteorological drought. So that's when you're looking at precipitation only. But as a hydrologist, we actually look at what's called full natural flow.

00;07;16;13 - 00;07;34;05
Speaker 2
And full natural flow is essentially the flow that would be expected in the system if there were no diversions, no reservoirs on the system, if it was a purely natural system. And from that, we're able to kind of get an idea of what the antecedent conditions were in the watersheds.

00;07;34;05 - 00;07;58;28
Speaker 2
So did we already have a soil moisture deficit? Was that did that precipitation come down as snow or rainfall? And all of that impacts what's actually going to come into the reservoir rather than precip alone. And so when we look at droughts, we're looking for an extended period of reduced full natural flow conditions and that usually often

00;07;58;28 - 00;08;01;20
Speaker 2
precipitate into a shortage in water.

00;08;02;08 - 00;08;13;15
Speaker 1
Okay. And when you're when you're considering the area that you're considering, I guess I should say would be the Tuolumne river watershed. And can you tell us what exact like area are we talking about when we use the term watershed?

00;08;13;15 - 00;08;14;03
Speaker 1
What does that mean?

00;08;14;07 - 00;08;36;01
Speaker 2
Yes. So essentially a watershed from its most basic definition is an area of land in which all runoff comes into a single source. So for the Tuolumne that would be the Tuolumne river. And so it actually starts all the way up in the Sierra Nevadas and then goes all the way down actually to the San

00;08;36;01 - 00;08;47;29
Speaker 2
Joaquin. But for us, we usually focus on where it ends at Don Pedro. So there's about 1500 square miles of watershed above Don Pedro that we're tracking constantly.

00;08;48;16 - 00;09;01;28
Speaker 1
And I think maybe this is a good point to make a note that in your reports that you provide to the board, you often forecast what sort of precipitation we might be expecting in our area, and that number is for the watershed.

00;09;02;06 - 00;09;12;07
Speaker 1
So we shouldn't interpret that as being the number that we're going to see fall here in Turlock or in series or in Paterson, but rather the the watershed, as you mentioned, up above, Don Pedro.

00;09;12;13 - 00;09;31;05
Speaker 2
Yes, absolutely. Because often those numbers are very skewed as compared to local values. So if I'm in the board meeting and I see that we're going to be receiving eight inches in the watershed, not locally, because eight inches for our local area would be almost 80%.

00;09;31;07 - 00;09;32;10
Speaker 2
Yeah, exactly.

00;09;33;20 - 00;09;45;28
Speaker 1
Good distinction to make. So to put the dry periods into context, what is the average precipitation that we would see in the watershed and what is a typical runoff look like?

00;09;46;21 - 00;10;12;23
Speaker 2
Yes. So average precipitation within the watershed usually sits around just above 36 inches. And that. 36 inches is actually measured on a precipitation year. So that starts on September 1st and goes all the way to August 31st. And this differs from the water year, which starts October 1st and goes to September 30th.

00;10;12;23 - 00;10;19;25
Speaker 2
And so average values for a water year or for our full natural flow, you're looking at about 1.9 million acre feet.

00;10;20;14 - 00;10;29;03
Speaker 1
Wow. I don't know who determined these the calendar for these different water years, but I'm sorry that they couldn't make it more convenient for you and have them line up.

00;10;29;08 - 00;10;32;02
Speaker 2
Yeah, it does make my job a little bit harder.

00;10;32;21 - 00;10;39;00
Speaker 1
Definitely. In explaining to people, I would imagine that there is a difference between the precipitation year and the water year.

00;10;39;01 - 00;10;41;16
Speaker 2
Yeah, just one month. But it's important.

00;10;41;20 - 00;10;48;24
Speaker 1
It is important. All right. So compared to these averages, what are we currently experiencing with this drought?

00;10;49;23 - 00;11;10;05
Speaker 2
Yes. So as you mentioned earlier, right now, the Tuolumne River watershed is actually experiencing the fourth driest two year period on record. And the record starts in 1897. And as of August 24th this year, we've seen 18.78 inches within the watershed.

00;11;10;15 - 00;11;13;28
Speaker 2
And so that's about 51.8% for this day.

00;11;14;04 - 00;11;19;24
Speaker 1
Again, the average you said was just over 36 inches and we're at 18.78. Wow.

00;11;20;19 - 00;11;33;06
Speaker 2
And as far as full natural flow, so that's the one that's measured on the water year that we've actually only received 32.3% of average for that for that period.

00;11;34;03 - 00;11;47;27
Speaker 1
And is there a if we're looking at, you know, kind of following the elevation of Don Pedro and looking at kind of an acre foot number, is there a number that that equates to as far as the number of acre feet that we are below average?

00;11;48;10 - 00;11;58;17
Speaker 2
Yes. So as far as acre feet runoff, it's about 1.3 million acre feet below an average runoff year that I had mentioned of 1.9 million.

00;11;58;21 - 00;12;20;10
Speaker 1
Wow. Okay. So 1 million acre feet below that is not coming out of the watershed and essentially filling the reservoir. Yes. Wow. That's a big difference. Okay. And so then where does it look right now as though the 2020-2021 water year might end up as compared to past years.

00;12;20;26 - 00;12;27;16
Speaker 2
So right now, as of just today, we had to be about the sixth driest water year on record.

00;12;27;24 - 00;12;40;09
Speaker 1
Wow. Okay. And so now let's look back to the last drought I referenced, which was 2012 through 2016. How does what we're experiencing now compare to that drought?

00;12;41;02 - 00;12;57;06
Speaker 2
Yes. So actually, when we're looking on hydrologic terms, we usually refer to the drought on more of the 2012 through 2015, just because 2016 was an average year. But we are still recovering. So that's why TID refers to it as that five year period.

00;12;57;20 - 00;13;20;20
Speaker 2
But when we look at that four year period specifically, it's actually one of the driest four year periods in over 1000 years. So it's definitely a historic event that that we experienced. And when we're comparing the first two years of that, so 2012 and 2013 versus these first two years, so 2020 and 2021, we're looking at almost

00;13;20;20 - 00;13;29;12
Speaker 2
400,000 acre feet below what we experienced the first two years of that four year drought. So already unprecedented conditions.

00;13;29;12 - 00;13;50;12
Speaker 1
That's a Significant difference. Yeah. Yeah, he would. In looking at droughts, it's all dry, but it's a little shocking to hear that we're even that much farther below what what our numbers were in the last drought. Okay. So what are some of the trends you're seeing in hydrology within the Toulumne River watershed?

00;13;51;10 - 00;14;11;01
Speaker 2
So as I mentioned just a second ago that we're seeing a lot of these unprecedented conditions or record breaking conditions. And a lot of that we're seeing as being attributed to climate change. And so for our area, climate change and specifically more for the Toulumne, climate change means greater extremes.

00;14;11;12 - 00;14;32;15
Speaker 2
So we're seeing wet years getting wetter. So think about 2017 or you're seeing dry year getting drier. So the four year drought and now this two year period that we're experiencing now, we've actually found for the first part of our record, if you had a dry year, the probability of the next year being dry was 50/50 chance

00;14;33;16 - 00;14;46;22
Speaker 2
But now we're actually seeing the probability of subsequent dry years increasing. In some cases, probabilities can get up to 80% likelihood that you're going to have a subsequent dry year after the first one.

00;14;46;23 - 00;15;01;18
Speaker 1
So it's not that having a dry year is kind of an anomaly in the overall historical schedule. Looking forward, we're looking we're seeing more of those two year dry periods or more rather than just a single dry year.

00;15;01;28 - 00;15;20;23
Speaker 2
Absolutely. And, you know, that's what makes it a lot more difficult running a system that was meant for being able to refill and it was supposed to carryover for a certain amount of years. But if you're now having these long multiyear droughts, it makes a lot more difficult to plan for that carryover storage.

00;15;21;01 - 00;15;30;05
Speaker 1
Absolutely. Now, when looking at the at the watershed and what's coming into the watershed, is there a difference between whether we're seeing more rain or more snow?

00;15;30;21 - 00;15;48;03
Speaker 2
Yes. So part of some of the climate change indicators specifically for the Sierra Nevadas, is they're noticing that the watersheds that are normally snow dominant. So tell me reverse considered a snow dominant watershed majority of our water supply comes from runoff from the snowpack.

00;15;48;09 - 00;16;09;08
Speaker 2
And so that's a lot more controlled. You can forecast a little bit better versus when you have a rain dominant watershed, which is what we're kind of seeing the warming shift into. You're looking at higher peaks of full natural flow coming into the reservoir and you're looking at it coming in in a very short amount of time

00;16;09;16 - 00;16;18;15
Speaker 2
So it makes it a lot more difficult to plan for. And really, the system wasn't built for that. So we're having to change how we operate in order to account for this.

00;16;18;29 - 00;16;33;15
Speaker 1
Interesting. Because the the snow that has fallen that we can measure, we know more about that, as you said. But then when we have these rain events that come in, we never quite know the extent of them, the amount of rain that they're going to bring and the duration.

00;16;33;16 - 00;16;50;19
Speaker 1
So it's there's, as you say, that it's more difficult to plan when we have these events coming versus knowing what is currently sitting in the mountains. Okay. Is there a typically a time when we receive the majority of our precipitation in the watershed or.

00;16;50;19 - 00;16;51;25
Speaker 1
And is that changing at all?

00;16;52;14 - 00;17;13;15
Speaker 2
Yes. So normally we receive our precipitation. You have it starts off in about November. We're seeing it start to shift now. But you go about November to April. Those are kind of your peak months of precipitation. And then what we're kind of noticing is fall periods are pretty dry.

00;17;13;15 - 00;17;37;26
Speaker 2
We're not receiving as much precipitation and actually receiving more precipitation in that spring period. So March, April time. So if you might or if people remember 2018, we didn't have much precipitation all through the winter. And then finally in March, we had multiple atmospheric river events that brought us precipitation out of the watershed.

00;17;38;02 - 00;17;40;25
Speaker 1
And we appreciate having those precipitation events.

00;17;40;28 - 00;17;42;07
Speaker 2
Yes.Absolutely.

00;17;42;07 - 00;18;02;14
Speaker 1
Whenever They come. All right. So as you mentioned earlier, it's when we have the snowpack in the mountains above the watershed that's easier to measure. Easier to kind of get a handle on what's up there and what that might mean for our reservoir and the water that is coming in.

00;18;03;18 - 00;18;09;05
Speaker 1
What are some of the tools that he uses to to understand this or to measure this?

00;18;10;02 - 00;18;27;19
Speaker 2
Yes. So actually, TID has been trying to implement a lot of new tools because we are experiencing these record breaking conditions. So we want to try and remove as much uncertainty from the process as possible, considering we have so much climatic uncertainty.

00;18;28;04 - 00;18;47;29
Speaker 2
So what we've done is TID back in 2012, partnered with NASA on the Airborne Snow Observatory program. And through that pilot project, we found a lot of benefits of how it could inform reservoir operations. And so it now has been moved out of NASA.

00;18;47;29 - 00;19;05;21
Speaker 2
And we are still working with a company called Airborne Snow Observatory, Inc. And essentially what they do is they fly an airplane that's retrofitted with lidar, are on it, and it flies over the watershed to to capture the snowpack.

00;19;05;21 - 00;19;30;01
Speaker 2
And the way that they do this is they actually do a flight during summer or a snow free flight, essentially to set a baseline elevation in the system. And then during the winter, even through the snowpack accumulation, as well as the snowpack runoff period, they do multiple flights and that captures the snow on elevations.

00;19;30;01 - 00;19;45;17
Speaker 2
And when you subtract the two, you're able to get the depth of the snow. And then from there they layer on some model densities to then be able to give us a overall volume of water that's being held within that snowpack.

00;19;46;00 - 00;20;07;02
Speaker 2
So really what this does is it locks in our baseline snowpack because before we had ASO technology, we had our snow survey program done by California DWR, and there was only 17 measurements over the whole 1500 square miles of the Toulumne River watershed.

00;20;07;22 - 00;20;28;05
Speaker 2
So when you think about that, that's a lot of uncertainty when you consider that your snowpack volumes only based on 17 measurements. First, now we have millions of points to to feed into this. So now we continue the Snow survey program, but they act as more calibration points for the Airborne Snow Observatory.

00;20;28;14 - 00;20;35;19
Speaker 1
Yeah, that's an amazing advancement. And and what sort of benefits have we gained from using this lidar technology?

00;20;36;10 - 00;20;53;21
Speaker 2
So actually we were able to use this to inform our decisions in 2018. As I mentioned earlier, it was a year in which we didn't receive actually much snowpack and a lot of our runoff came in as a precipitation event in that March-April period.

00;20;54;11 - 00;21;10;16
Speaker 2
Well, our system, our operations isn't structured for that. And so we have a what's called a flood control curve on Don Pedro. And the way in which that moves up throughout the year is more based on a typical snowpack runoff.

00;21;11;01 - 00;21;31;08
Speaker 2
But because we received it as precip, we didn't have the ability to capture all of that. And so what we ended up doing is we went ahead and asked the Army Corps of Engineers to provide us a deviation, and it was based on the fact that ASO showed really there's not much snow pack up there that we

00;21;31;08 - 00;21;47;19
Speaker 2
felt very confident in the amount of water that was up there. And then we also had information from the Scripps Institute AR Forecast to show we're not expecting any large precipitation event either. So really there isn't much flood risk.

00;21;47;21 - 00;22;09;25
Speaker 2
We should be able to be encroached within this flood control space. And, you know, we're still ensuring public safety and we're not going to be spilling. And because of that certainty that both those products provided us, the Corps allowed us to deviate and we saved over 150,000 acre feet of water for our TID customers.

00;22;10;05 - 00;22;31;07
Speaker 1
So just to recap that very quickly, we are held to a certain elevation that we can take the water up to, and that is regulated, if you will, by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. And so as we saw these precipitation events and that level was rising, we knew we were going to go above that level that

00;22;31;07 - 00;22;45;07
Speaker 1
we should hold to. But because of the data and the accuracy of of the data, we were able to kind of make a case to go above that and retain that water that we are. Wise would have had to put down the river.

00;22;45;15 - 00;22;53;05
Speaker 2
Yes, exactly. So if you really put that water to benefit in, you know, an operationally dry year.

00;22;53;16 - 00;23;12;00
Speaker 1
Now, wow, what a change in strategy. What a change in, you know, the different decisions that can be made based on having the best available data. That's great. I'd like to go back for a minute. You mentioned TID partnering with the Scripps Institute regarding atmospheric research.

00;23;12;00 - 00;23;13;16
Speaker 1
Can you tell us a little bit more about that?

00;23;14;22 - 00;23;39;01
Speaker 2
Yes. So we have worked with Scripps Institute, which has a center for western water and weather extremes, and their research is focused on atmospheric rivers. And essentially what atmospheric river is, is a river in the sky. It carries a large amount of vapor, water vapor that then goes in over our watershed and leads to large precipitation events

00;23;39;01 - 00;24;04;22
Speaker 2
And for the western U.S., atmospheric rivers can account for 30 to 50% of our water supply in a single year. So having a better grasp on what's going on with those is really important for our forecasting abilities. So what TID has done is we've worked with them on identifying important products or useful products for water operations specifically

00;24;04;22 - 00;24;26;08
Speaker 2
, and also products that we're able to share with the public. So taking a lot of, you know, complicated information and, you know, a lot of scientific research, often it can it's not very digestible. And so they found a way to make that information digestible and make it to where it can be directly applied into operations.

00;24;26;20 - 00;24;48;10
Speaker 2
So this has been really useful to us being able to predict any kind of possible flood impacts as well as being able to show in the case of 2018, we're not seeing any atmospheric rivers, so we can operate to more of a water supply benefit rather than being so focused on flood control.

00;24;49;04 - 00;25;08;06
Speaker 1
Makes sense. Okay. So just to recap, we work with the Scripps Institute on refining and getting to the best available data. And we work with NASA like space program NASA. So those are some those are some pretty good partners to have as far as from a data standpoint, I would imagine.

00;25;08;16 - 00;25;24;09
Speaker 2
Yes, absolutely. And it's always a pleasure to to talk with all of them and, you know, be able to to be able to give them a call. You know, the fact that it has a direct line to such intelligent people is really useful to us.

00;25;24;17 - 00;25;48;26
Speaker 1
Absolutely. And clearly that those contacts and the ability to make these projections, these forecasts, are paying off for the district. That's really a big difference. That's huge. Okay. So as we look to the 2021-2022 water year, that is beginning in October, we're hopeful that we're going to see some wet weather.

00;25;49;16 - 00;25;55;23
Speaker 1
But what would you say are some important indicators of whether or not we're going to have that wet winter or spring?

00;25;57;11 - 00;26;13;05
Speaker 2
So I wish I had a better answer for you. But unfortunately, long term seasonal forecasts are have a really high uncertainty. I mean, if you think about even just our 16 day forecasts can shift in a single hour.

00;26;13;22 - 00;26;29;07
Speaker 2
So when we're looking at these long term forecasts, what they're usually doing is they're looking at these larger climate patterns. So there's the Madden Julian Oscillation, or the more common one that most people hear is about the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

00;26;29;29 - 00;26;47;17
Speaker 2
And so a lot of people, they say, oh, it's an El Nino year. We're going to have what conditions? Unfortunately, where we are in the Tuolumne River watershed, we're actually kind of in this no man's land when it comes to the predictive factors of those large climatic patterns.

00;26;47;17 - 00;26;59;15
Speaker 2
They usually affect either south of us or more north of us. So it makes it really difficult as far as going into the next year, knowing with certainty what the conditions might be.

00;26;59;27 - 00;27;13;20
Speaker 1
I see, okay, so as it currently stands, how are we looking for next year if you're if you're willing to look out that far under each the wet and the dry scenarios?

00;27;14;13 - 00;27;31;29
Speaker 2
Yes. So every year is different. And so it's for that reason, we have our own internal hydrologic model, which essentially looks at all right, what's our current state, what does the soil moisture look like? What is the forecasted precip look like?

00;27;32;14 - 00;27;51;16
Speaker 2
And then we go ahead and actually run the meteorological conditions that we experienced in over 125 different water years. So past water year meteorology and see what are those end up as hydrology. You know from our start our current starting position what does that look like?

00;27;51;25 - 00;28;05;28
Speaker 2
And that's how we're able to kind of give this probable distribution of, okay, we're probably going to end up somewhere in between where we've, you know, we've what we've already experienced. Now we are seeing all these record breaking years.

00;28;05;28 - 00;28;29;08
Speaker 2
So it does make that a little bit harder. But like I mentioned, every year is different. So, you know, 2018, it was actually for full natural flow pretty close to an average year. But because we received it as rainfall rather than snow, that impacted our operations and made it actually an operationally dry year because we didn't fill

00;28;29;08 - 00;28;54;03
Speaker 2
Don Pedro. And so, you know, we're always looking at these two year forecasts of Don Pedro elevation and we're taking into account what those soil moisture deficits might be for the next year. And so, you know, if we do have any kind of large precipitation coming in next year, those initial events will likely be muted just because

00;28;54;03 - 00;28;58;02
Speaker 2
we do have that deficit already from these last two years.

00;28;58;11 - 00;29;23;07
Speaker 1
That makes sense. Yeah. So you mentioned that you use this data and that is what kind of informs your modeling, which helps the district look at a two year forecast. And it was because we have this this technology and this information available to us that we actually began our drought preparations way before there was actually a drought

00;29;23;08 - 00;29;32;26
Speaker 1
declaration. In fact, last year, we had already reduced the amount of available water to our growers in anticipation of there being a second dry year.

00;29;33;24 - 00;29;57;01
Speaker 2
Yes. So TID actually, because we have implemented a lot of this new technology and it's technology that other watersheds are just starting to bring online. And because we've had that to inform our decisions, we've been able to better plan for these dry scenarios and inform our board when it looks like those are very probable.

00;29;57;17 - 00;30;21;19
Speaker 2
And so they have ensured that we would have enough carryover storage going into this year, which happened to be dry. So it was it was good planning on their part to reduce the available water starting last year. And that way, if hopefully not next year is dry, we are still able to serve our irrigation customers.

00;30;22;21 - 00;30;41;08
Speaker 1
Well, it's pretty impressive the amount of data that you guys consume, the way you're able to turn that into accurate forecasting or, you know, planning for four years ahead and the impact that that has on the decision making on so many levels at TID.

00;30;42;25 - 00;30;53;28
Speaker 1
We're very fortunate to have the the mines in hydrology that we do as we're kind of getting close to the end of our time together. Is there anything we haven't covered or anything else that you would like to add?

00;30;54;23 - 00;31;15;18
Speaker 2
Well, I think going off of what you were just mentioning about just the amount of data we're dealing with for any of the listeners that are extra curious or want to know more about what's going on. A lot of the data that I mentioned today is actually available publicly online so that atmospheric river forecasts through Scripps Institute

00;31;15;28 - 00;31;33;26
Speaker 2
. Go ahead and look it up. Or even our snowpack forecasts from the Airborne Snow Observatory. Those are available. And then there's also information on today's website like the water report that was mentioned earlier. So, you know, there's a wealth of data out there for for anyone who wants to look at it.

00;31;33;27 - 00;31;37;08
Speaker 1
If somebody really wants to nerd out on hydrology, the tools are available.

00;31;37;09 - 00;31;39;05
Speaker 2
Yes, absolutely. 

00;31;39;16 - 00;31;51;13
Speaker 1
Awesome. Well, Olivia, we so appreciate you being with us today to help us break down what those tools are, how the district uses them, and how that impacts the decisions that are made at TID. So thank you very much for being with us today.

00;31;51;17 - 00;31;53;06
Speaker 2
No, absolutely. It is my pleasure.

00;31;55;23 - 00;32;01;07
Speaker 1
Now joining me is TID chief operating officer Brad Kohen. Thanks for joining us, Brad.

00;32;01;12 - 00;32;02;22
Speaker 3
Happy to be here. Thanks.Constance.

00;32;03;15 - 00;32;11;08
Speaker 1
So the chief operating officer position is relatively new to the district. Can you tell us a little bit about what what that position does? What are your responsibilities?

00;32;11;09 - 00;32;29;07
Speaker 3
Sure. So as of January 2020, it was appointed to chief operating officer position. And I manage the district's operations, the kind of the daily duties of the district, allowing the GM to really focus on more of the external facing objectives that's facing the district.

00;32;29;28 - 00;32;35;00
Speaker 1
All right. And how did you find your way to TID in the first place what previous roles have held with the district?

00;32;35;10 - 00;32;51;00
Speaker 3
Most of my experience is in the private sector. I am a civil engineer and land surveyor by trade, and I joined TID in the civil engineering department in 2011 and in 2018, moved up to the Power Supply Administration.

00;32;51;22 - 00;32;55;23
Speaker 3
And then again, as I said, in 2020, I moved into the COO role.

00;32;57;15 - 00;33;01;07
Speaker 1
All right. So you've had experience on both the power and water side of the house. 
00;33;01;07 - 00;33;06;22
Speaker 3
Yes. And I'm very thankful for for that experience. And it's invaluable in my current role for the district.

00;33;07;09 - 00;33;22;06
Speaker 1
So you're here to talk to us today about the current drought. But before we get into that, let's talk about what drought actually is. Olivia, describe drought for us from a hydrological perspective and what drought means when talking about the Tuolumne River watershed.

00;33;22;15 - 00;33;30;27
Speaker 1
But how else does TID define or maybe quantify drought? And how do we distinguish drought from a couple of successive dry years?

00;33;32;07 - 00;33;50;03
Speaker 3
How it sits in my head. You can't ignore hydrology from the main factor of a drought. But. My thoughts on it is a drought is when we have a significantly reduced impact to our growers regardless of the cause.

00;33;50;18 - 00;34;11;11
Speaker 3
And there are many causes. Again, hydrology is the main the driver of a drought. But regulatory issues everyone's heard of the SED. The Bay Delta water quality plan and more recently curtailments. Those all are a driver of drought conditions.

00;34;12;12 - 00;34;34;25
Speaker 3
And as well as Don Pedro storage levels. Dump hydro is one of the metrics that we look at to determine what would be a recommendation to the board for the next water year. And as an example, if you if we had a and hopefully we do have a normal to more than normal precipitation year coming up we

00;34;34;25 - 00;34;44;10
Speaker 3
can't ignore the fact that Don Pedro is at a low level and you can't magically be out of a drought if Don Pedro is significantly lower than normal.

00;34;44;21 - 00;34;54;24
Speaker 1
Absolutely. At just as the success of dry years kind of works down to a certain level, we need then to have normal or better than normal successive years to get back up to the level we want to be.

00;34;55;03 - 00;35;04;10
Speaker 1
Okay. And we'll get into both of those again in a minute. But what are some of the other impacts that drought has on our region?

00;35;05;21 - 00;35;27;05
Speaker 3
So one that can't be ignored is because we are such an ag centric economy locally. When we have extended periods of drought, the local economy has it's a real impact. And it's not just to our farmers, it's to the agribusiness that fills almost every shopping center in the local area.

00;35;27;20 - 00;35;53;07
Speaker 3
So our local economy really takes a hit and an extended drought. Groundwater levels are also an impact of a drought, especially an extended drought. TID operates in a conjunctive use program, and that is a fancy way of saying when we do not have sufficient surface water or water delivered from Don Pedro, we lean on the groundwater to

00;35;53;07 - 00;36;16;11
Speaker 3
supplement that for our growers and vice versa. When we have sufficient surface water releases from Don Pedro, we then maximize that by delivering it to our growers and recharging the groundwater for the next drought. It is unavoidable that in an extended drought, our local groundwater levels will be impacted.

00;36;17;14 - 00;36;34;04
Speaker 1
And just to clarify for some of our listeners, surface water is the water that we send down the canals that we then send out around our district. Groundwater is actually pumped out of the ground and then the surface water that goes on to the farmer's fields are used to help refill that replenish that groundwater.

00;36;34;05 - 00;37;03;17
Speaker 3
Great clarification. Also worth mentioning is Don Pedro power plant that Don Pedro Reservoir provides the fuel for our Don Pedro power plant, which provides clean, carbon free energy that we serve all of our TID customers with. And in an extended drought or even a single drought, that energy production is decreased and in many cases is replaced by

00;37;03;17 - 00;37;05;14
Speaker 3
a higher cost energy for our customers.

00;37;08;05 - 00;37;25;11
Speaker 1
It's not uncommon for California and specifically our area to experience a drought. However, we heard earlier that due to climate change, these dry periods are happening at a greater frequency and for a longer duration. So let's talk a little bit about how that climate change has shaped the current drought.

00;37;27;02 - 00;37;47;15
Speaker 3
So we are in the currently in the second dry year of this drought. And as it stands at Tuolumne River Watershed is experiencing the sixth driest single year and the fourth driest two years on record. Worth mentioning is that this current drought isn't just something affecting TID.

00;37;48;11 - 00;37;58;23
Speaker 3
It's that California as a whole is has been dry. In fact, 50 of the 58 counties in California have declared emergency level drought conditions.

00;37;59;01 - 00;38;13;28
Speaker 1
That's right. And when the drought emergency was declared, as you said, for 50 of the 58 counties in the state, that kind of put the drought in the spotlight. But really, TID has been taking proactive actions to preserve water supply.

00;38;14;08 - 00;38;17;13
Speaker 1
Four years prior. What can you tell us about those early actions?

00;38;17;29 - 00;38;37;26
Speaker 3
Absolutely. So the TID board of directors has reduced the available water for the previous two years. Just for perspective, a normal delivery or a normal availability of water is 48 inches for our growers. And in 2020 the water availability was 42 inches.

00;38;38;11 - 00;38;43;02
Speaker 3
And in 2021 was 34 inches, which is a 30% reduction to normal.

00;38;43;03 - 00;38;51;06
Speaker 1
Wow, that's significant. So how does the current drought that we're experiencing compare to the 2012-2016 drought?

00;38;52;18 - 00;39;07;29
Speaker 3
This drought has definitely been more severe and we are currently in the second year of a drought. But our Don Pedro elevation our Don Pedro storage elevation is at the same level about as the third year of the previous drought.

00;39;08;02 - 00;39;30;10
Speaker 3
But definitely more severe. And that also to make things worse, the temperatures in this drought are notable, notably above the temperatures of the previous drought. Again, just compounding the fact of not having enough water. But again, the agricultural product needs more water.

00;39;31;16 - 00;39;39;07
Speaker 1
So we know that hydrology as is dryer and a drought, but there's also TID's experience from a regulatory perspective. Is that right?

00;39;40;03 - 00;39;48;01
Speaker 3
Correct. On August 20th, the State Water Resource Control Board issued statewide curtailment orders similar to what they had done in 2015.

00;39;49;07 - 00;39;51;07
Speaker 1
And what actually is a curtailment order.

00;39;52;07 - 00;39;56;29
Speaker 3
So curtailments impact the ability for the districts to store water in Don Pedro.

00;39;58;12 - 00;40;18;13
Speaker 1
Okay. But now the curtailments that the State Water Resources Control Board have issued in theory are to protect water supplies. But really to TID is already meeting or exceeding the requirements that were beholden to as part of our license.

00;40;18;14 - 00;40;19;04
Speaker 1
Isn't that right?

00;40;19;12 - 00;40;38;24
Speaker 3
Yeah. It's an unfortunate situation that is being a good steward of the watershed by taking early action, by conserving water, by really being a good manager of the watershed, as led to Don Pedro having elevations higher than other reservoirs in the local area.

00;40;39;09 - 00;40;43;25
Speaker 3
And unfortunately, it's put a target on our back and we feel like we're being punished.

00;40;44;20 - 00;41;01;20
Speaker 1
That is unfortunate. We know that drought is going to continue to impact our region and that TID is proactive in taking what we've learned from previous droughts and using that to prepare for future dry periods. What are some of the projects or initiatives that TID has put in place since the last drought?

00;41;03;29 - 00;41;18;17
Speaker 3
I do feel like TID has made significant efforts since the last drought, and I'd like to highlight some of those areas, one of which is a project we're really proud of. And it's the Lateral eight regulating reservoir pilot and expansion project.

00;41;19;23 - 00;41;40;20
Speaker 3
This project is located near the end of our system and it's a 130 acre foot regulating reservoir. And in simple terms, it captures the overages in our system and then supplies the shortfalls in our system, really increasing the water use efficiency, especially in that lower end of our system, which is a real struggle without it.

00;41;42;02 - 00;42;05;19
Speaker 3
The success of this project has also led to two additional projects that we're moving forward on. One similar in nature on the Ceres Main Canal and another on the lateral five and a half. Another effort that we should highlight from the last drought to the current one would be our involvement in the ASO and atmospheric river modeling

00;42;06;10 - 00;42;32;19
Speaker 3
And really, this is leveraging technology to get us information sooner and more accurate information to make better decisions in regards to how much precipitation is in the watershed, how much should we anticipate, and what should. And giving the board the ability to make better decisions to affect how much water is available to our farmers.

00;42;32;25 - 00;42;53;09
Speaker 1
Right. Olivia told us a little earlier about the use of the ASO Technology Airborne Snow Observatory, making it so that we were able to make decisions to retain what was at 150,000 acre feet of water that we would have otherwise had to have gotten rid of for flood control purposes.

00;42;53;15 - 00;43;00;07
Speaker 1
But we were able to hold on to that because of the specific best data that was available to us through this program.

00;43;00;08 - 00;43;06;12
Speaker 3
It's great that we can quantify the benefits because many times it's hard to quantify those benefits. So great point.

00;43;07;14 - 00;43;09;10
Speaker 1
All right. What else has the district done?

00;43;09;27 - 00;43;38;03
Speaker 3
So another area that we've had had movement in is an expansion of the ability of our online system. We currently or previous to 2021, had an online water ordering system that allowed our growers to order water online. We've expanded that to give them access to their usage data and really excited about the forecasting calculator that allows a

00;43;38;03 - 00;43;57;22
Speaker 3
farmer to put in all of their future irrigations and know exactly when they would like to irrigate and more importantly, know when they would run out of water to give them the ability to plan that accordingly, especially important in a year where water availability is less than normal.

00;43;59;27 - 00;44;21;27
Speaker 3
Another effort worth highlighting is the drought planning matrix. We've started that process this year and in simple terms it is a comprehensive list of all of the things we've done in the past. When we come into a drought condition, TID isn't new to droughts or drought planning.

00;44;22;26 - 00;44;43;22
Speaker 3
This is just a formalized, comprehensive list of all of those components that we meet early with a larger group than normal. And it has resulted in us being more prepared and more able to better make decisions in going into a drought.

00;44;44;21 - 00;44;59;25
Speaker 1
And I think one of these one of the decision making processes that has come out of the drought planning matrix is the ability to either push off or maybe do earlier capital improvement projects that the district has planned.

00;45;00;09 - 00;45;09;05
Speaker 1
But focus on those projects that would be of greater benefit for water storage or water use efficiencies rather than maybe some other projects that are in the queue.

00;45;09;20 - 00;45;38;12
Speaker 3
Yes, it's really allowed us to especially the meeting early is allowed us to prioritize work to make sure that our facilities are available for multiple futures, whether it's early irrigation, whether it's the ability to reprioritize our capital budget, to focus more heavily on certain water use, efficiency projects versus maintenance, etc..

00;45;38;12 - 00;45;41;27
Speaker 3
So really seen a big benefit this year in utilizing this matrix.

00;45;42;21 - 00;45;54;07
Speaker 1
Great. And then what about? So we've made all these improvements. What has the district been doing to communicate these to growers and to TID customers?

00;45;54;26 - 00;46;21;06
Speaker 3
I do feel like there's been significant effort in the communications area during this last drought and really there's been a focus on increased transparency and the frequency of communication. We're providing the grower monthly delivery via email. We are utilizing board meetings to provide updates on drought conditions, curtailment, sygma and progress on the voluntary agreements as well as

00;46;21;06 - 00;46;43;12
Speaker 3
many other topics that would be beneficial in a drought condition. And again, these board meetings are open to the public, but they are also recorded and available to watch online. We also present updated hydrology reports at each of those board meetings and in between you can get those hydrology reports online.

00;46;44;13 - 00;46;59;12
Speaker 3
And we are also continually pushing out updates regarding drought on our social media pages. We've developed a drought resource page at TID.org/drought. And we are producing podcasts just like this one.

00;46;59;18 - 00;47;09;14
Speaker 1
Very informative podcasts. Absolutely. Okay. So looking to the future. How is today planning for future droughts even beyond this one?

00;47;10;11 - 00;47;29;19
Speaker 3
So we're continuing to look at increased water use efficiency within the district, which would include some of the similar things we've talked about regulating reservoirs, pump automation, canal automation, pump back systems, along with many other things that would increase our water use efficiency in the district.

00;47;31;08 - 00;47;50;27
Speaker 3
We're exploring new programs, including a farmer to farmer transfer option. Again increasing the flexibility for our grower within the dry years. We are exploring the utilization of local, tertiary treated water. And we are assessing new water storage projects both above and below ground.

00;47;51;28 - 00;47;56;27
Speaker 3
We will be very busy, but we need to continue this progress even when it starts raining.

00;47;57;09 - 00;48;00;13
Speaker 1
Because we know we will face dry conditions again in the future.

00;48;00;15 - 00;48;01;04
Speaker 3
Absolutely.

00;48;02;07 - 00;48;08;05
Speaker 1
Okay. So a little more into the near future. What's the outlook for next year?

00;48;10;15 - 00;48;34;19
Speaker 3
I'll start on a positive note highlighting the fact that TID and its early action and early investment in assets like Don Pedro Reservoir has set us up in a condition where we have more water than many others in California, and we are reaping the benefits of that.

00;48;35;06 - 00;48;55;20
Speaker 3
But at the same time, we are looking at an extended drought driving water levels to an area of real concern. History also supports that dry years don't come in single or twos. They come in multiples. And as discussed earlier, our storage level is better than many other reservoirs.

00;48;56;00 - 00;49;07;16
Speaker 3
And it's due to the early investment in Don Pedro prudent planning, local control and early action by our Board of directors, as well as a high level of water delivery efficiency in our system.

00;49;08;04 - 00;49;19;04
Speaker 1
And I know that making those projections is a tall order, but I appreciate you taking a stab at that. When do you think we'll have more information on the 2022 water year?

00;49;19;19 - 00;49;35;24
Speaker 3
It's a great question. Not an easy one to answer, but it is very important because I think it's very important to our growers to have as early of information as possible. And so I think we'll be very transparent with the information that we have.

00;49;36;11 - 00;49;53;08
Speaker 3
But as far as real precipitation, I'm thinking December would be the earliest we would have real information. And we will obviously reach out with the details of how we would communicate that, whether it be a grower meeting or whether it be during one of our standard board meetings.

00;49;53;23 - 00;50;01;14
Speaker 3
But December, we should have some information that again, trying to get that to our growers as early as possible is the objective.

00;50;02;00 - 00;50;14;18
Speaker 1
Absolutely. All right. Well, before we let you go, is there anything that we haven't covered on the current drought, on TID's drought planning process, anything else you'd like to leave us with?

00;50;15;14 - 00;50;22;18
Speaker 3
I think we've hit the main topics. I appreciate you leading me through. This has been my been my pleasure to take a little bit of time to talk about drought.

00;50;23;10 - 00;50;29;01
Speaker 1
Excellent. I know it's not the the most uplifting topic, but a very one that's very important to the district.

00;50;29;04 - 00;50;30;25
Speaker 3
Not to the lightest, but it very important.

00;50;30;26 - 00;50;32;23
Speaker 1
Absolutely. All right. Thanks so much, Brad.

00;50;33;05 - 00;50;33;17
Speaker 3
Thank you.

00;50;34;14 - 00;50;53;11
Speaker 1
Thank you for tuning in to the TID water and Power podcast. You can find it on Facebook at Facebook.com/TurlockID on Instagram and Twitter at TurlockID and on LinkedIn as the Turlock Irrigation District for up to date information on the drought, you can visit.

00;50;53;19 - 00;50;59;26
Speaker 1
TID.org/drought. I'm your host, Constance Anderson. We'll see you again next time.